Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? I believe 2027 is the final year of that infamous TV deal that hasnt been the cash cow many other lesser franchises have benefitted from. Lets go Juan Soto. If you add those up, you get $77M. Players use that as a bargaining tactic all the time. Injuries are 75% covered by insurance pic . OR they could extend him now for what amounts to 7/87. Riley is a good deal. Only one thing is certain: his grandmother is a huge Cleveland Indians fan. Christian Academy of Knoxville (Knoxville, TN). For those that missed it, Strider will be Super Two BECAUSE he will be top 2 in ROY and that means he gets an extra year of service time in the new CBA. Most rookies dont end up becoming Aaron Judge BTW. Thats only free agent contracts. The only way this deal makes sense is if he becomes an inner-circle Hall-of-Fame pitcher who is the greatest pitcher of our generation. Both Story and Baez are much better players. Jansen and Duvall are gone after this yr. Morton, Odorizzi, Yates, and Rosario are gone after next yr. Ozuna will be gone after 2024. The only other way to get that channel is to splurge on the ridiculously overpriced cable providers with their ever-escalating fees. Spencer Strider is currently the starting pitcher position for the Atlanta Braves in Major League Baseball, the senior baseball league of the United States. Long-term extensions do not preclude a player from getting those bonus pool dollars pre-arbitration. Darius Vines, RHP 5. Braves have got it going on. Obviously if it went that route the Braves win this by a bit, maybe $10 mil in their favor by the end of it roughly. Bogaerts took an immensely friendly deal.. Saying that strider pitched last year too as the focal point of your comparison is disingenuous. Top 10 hitter in baseball. Enjoy the Braves playoff run while you whimper about what could have been for your Mutts. Spencer Strider, RP, ATL. Be disappointed if you are going to be anything Braves fans because soon youll see when he falls short of expectations, which is anything short of him becoming Pedro Martinez and hes no Pedro! Braves: Spencer Strider offers plenty of blame for rough weekend vs Mets. Anyone else a lil bothered we got a 1:05/4:05 start times at Truist? Padres fans loved it in 2017 when they locked him up, but carrying the last 3 years of that deal was brutal for them. He started the season in Atlanta. Strider will qualify for Super Two, so he will get 4 years of arbitration and if next season is close to 2022 then its going to be between the current first year arb record for a starting pitcher of $9.5 million and Bellingers $11.5 million figure. https://community.fangraphs.com/velocity-and-the-likelihood-of-tommy-john-surgery/. This is how you run an organization. Swanson 11.2 WAR. He made his MLB debut in 2021 and now plays for the Mississippi Braves, Gwinnett Stripers, Augusta GreenJackets, and Rome Braves. They are paying $44 million max for both years and its likely that a single season of a TOR starter in 5 years will cost close to that much. Is your life so empty that you pore over comments in three week old articles in search of targets for your insults? That 94 mph fastball to Rhys Hoskins is that danger more than 3 mph difference in velo from normal, which is to say, he usually sits 97-98, touching 100 and dropping as low as 96. MLB 4.05M subscribers Subscribe 3.1K Share 120K views 5 months ago Don't forget to subscribe!. He will finish the year with exactly ONE FULL YEAR OF SERVICE!! Btw, Max Fried and Kyle Wright arent garbage. If he has any hope of living up to this contract, Strider will have to play the whole year on the MLB roster for 2023 without injuries. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. He already missed a month due to injury. Story had to move off SS because his arms gone south and cant stay on the field. His salary will jump to $20 million in '26 and then rise to $22 million for both of the next two seasons. I also think thats one reason Freeman was so guilt-ridden, or whatever, about not returning when he had the chance. He wouldve made around $1M per pre-arbitration year in 23 and 24, anyway. Yum, yum, peach juice flowing, baby. Reward thing. Right?? Great for Strider too, because he locks in generational guaranteed money. Thats the salary of players in year 2 and 3. But the Braves battled and leapfrogged the Mets in early October to win the division. Definitely one of the best pitchers in the game but when it truly matters he crumbled. /s, Id use the Baez contract as a baseline 23AAV over 6. Extra year for winning division. The Mets and Braves won the same number of games in the season, and the same in number in October. While I think the Strider extension is a good gamble on an excellent young arm, youre right that any pitcher can turn into a pumpkin due to poor health or performance. The work that Alex Anthopoulos is doing with the Braves is outstanding. The Prime games are not really an inconvenience since I have Prime. Not the other way around. Being represented by Frontline he got himself a nice contract plus doesnt have to worry about fleas & ticks, Repd by Frontline and now hes got Bravecto. When Cleveland was playing TB, they had lunchtime games. Then blew it against the Braves and then against the Pads. Finally, the greater likelihood is that he probably wont be good enough to outplay what he was given because it was a dramatic overpay by a team that believes pitching will see a steep uptick in annual salary and their stupid contract with Strider is a self-fulfilling prophecy that will probably move the needle 10% across baseball due to this stupid deal. It assumes continued success after only 130 IP in the majors, it assumes zero regression, it assumes increase arb records at every level, it assumes higher investments on pitchers which is trending away from that since all starters are facing TJ surgery at least once in their career. But it would certainly not be enough to be among the top 22 percent of players in that class (the lowest the Super Two cutoff has been since 2009 is 2 years and 115 days after 2019). Theres some degree of risk for the Braves in laying out such lengthy commitments, even if each looks quite team friendly in a vacuum. Mar 3, 2023, 06:00am EST. He was not a Super 2, but posted an insane 2.85 FIP for his career with a Cy Young, 2 All-Star season, and 4 of 5 seasons with an ERA under 3.00. This is the first season that he has looked really good and stayed healthy. The Braves have always gotten the day slots. Contracts are not based on the back end, they area based on value as a whole. His market will drive up the price being one of the only 2nd tier options (behind pricier Boegarts, Trea Turner; Correa shouldnt opt out). The 21-year old made the transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation. Since 2019, You are right about Striders value potentially increasing. Brilliant! Not at all. The Braves are getting 2 years of FA for $44 million total. Everything is an option, quite honestly, Snitker said. The Marlins are one new owner away from being elite. (Strider is currently at 1.003 years.) Id lose my crap if Seattle paid Kirby that much and he may have the best control since Greg Maddux with Smoltz level velo. There were talks mentioned in August and no deal was done. Use Fried as an example who might make roughly $40 mil through arb in total. Dont know what thats worth, but its not nothin. After an outstanding rookie season, Strider appears to be picking up right where he left off to kick off spring . Those numbers are very reasonable. Ive had it with my cable provider. The nicest condos in New York with less than half that sq. Im sure a non-GM telling someone they dont have what it takes to be a GM, carries a lot of weight! Spencer Strider Rumors & News Bats: R Throws: R Height: 72 Weight: 195 Age 23 Seasons: 1 Salary: 570,500 Birthplace: Columbus, Ohio College: Clemson Rumors & News Videos Photos TalkingChop Feb 8, 2023 Daily Hammer Podcast: The Braves Could Feature Some of the Best Brands in Baseball Many of the projections I saw had the Braves winning the division. This might be the worst extension overpay I have ever seen. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP 10. The rule is if a player finishes 2 top in the ROY balloting he is credited with a full year of service time regardless of the number of days he actually spent in the majors. Spencer Strider is one of the best young pitchers in the Atlanta Braves organization. Spencer Strider was born in Columbus, Ohio on October 28, 1998. Love the hugely inaccurate arb numbers by posters on here. In a general sense, the Harris deal is a great one, and Riley. Most annoying 3-2 hitter Ive watched all season. Yes a 2.67 ERA is better then a 2.27 ERA. Strider has been excellent in his first full season with Atlanta, going 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 31 appearances (20 starts). They potentially saved a lot of money. Weve seen PLENTY of great rookie seasons by SP and most of the time they dont last 3 more years of that elite level. Think hes still representing himself. You are comparing Harveys call up as a full season is disingenuous. Btw.you put that Mets collapse in the books yet? Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. We already know its you. Yes, the poor ownership of the past is directly related to the problem but that teams problem going forward will always been the fan support. Players dont sign team friendly contacts because they enjoy where they are. Thats not how you run a billion dollar company, its just not and thats exactly what they did. When hes banging 25-30 HRs, hell be at best a mid-.800 OPS, nowhere near the $40M/year people believe he will get! The examples and numbers you give and your well edited comments make me believe you are a writer fiction, right? Personally, I think the key is to get control of extra free agent years in exchange, but even there they didnt do that well by only getting one or two of them. The point isnt whether this ends up being a bad deal, its that it follows bad process. Product executive enabling intelligent decisions through enriching and enhancing data and delivering it in awesome products. The contract will cost him $92 million if he exercises his option for seven years. However, there is also a non-zero chance he gets it between 25 and 29 years old, which makes it more like 50-75% likelihood he could need TJ surgery, again removing the benefit of a long-term deal. The annoying part is we are charged a fee as part of our cable packages to get YES, but more games this year have been splintered off to Prime, Apple and Peacock. Dylan Dodd, LHP 9. The fact that you dont know how Super 2 works, totally invalidates your opinion. Does he love ATL to the tune of forgoing, say, $50 million? I dont know anything about bonuses with adjustments made to the new CBA. He actually has only three days in 2021, so hell be close to the bottom of his class. Just here for Mets fans comments. Luckily for . For someone like me who can only watch my team on national broadcasts due to the unavailability of my teams cable channel at a decent price, getting to watch them on TV (instead of settling for the radio like usual) a few extra times a season thanks to the Apple deal is great. This Strider deal might be the most risky considering his short track record and the fragility of pitching in general, but its not for an amount that would hamstring the team. Will make luxury tax teams wary of him. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. He has recorded 10 or more strikeouts in a game six times this season, including twice this month -- striking out 16 against the Colorado Rockies on Sept. 1, and 10 in his most recent start Sunday against the Phillies. Factor in the Braves are assuming all of the risk hell continue to pitch at an elite level for 5 straight years to top it off, which is no guarantee. Login Here. He also only had 10 starts. He has not stated how much he was paid by the teams while getting picked by the MLB. $25M (2028 Option), If he blew the lid off previous seasons with year-to-year, it would be like, $1M (2023) A total of $78.475 mm. Meanwhile Cohen will spend even more and have a $400 mil opening day payroll lol. 33. What's the Dodgers' plan at shortstop? All rights reserved. You sound like you have a community college education in accounting. For the fans sake, I hope ownership realizes the value of spending some money and they re-sign Swanson. Lets keep the core together. anybody signing Swanson for 6/120 will regret it. Sunday Funday is here, which means fantasy baseball waiver claims are, too. A visual look at how Spencer Strider ranks across the league, conference, division, and team. I agree. Thats before considering a slate of arbitration-eligible players headlined by lefty Max Fried, whos projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn more than $12MM in 2023. They are most likely greatly overpaying on those arbitration years. Strider burst on the scene this year as he posted a 2.67 ERA with 202 strikeouts over 31 appearances (20 starts), becoming the first Braves rookie in the Modern Era to have a 200-strikeout season. Its Swanson or bust for them. Mets 6986: Three days at seasons end and 2.1 innings pitched by Strider in 2021. Cant do it? Trevor Bauers arb years: $6.5M (2018), $13M (2019), $17.5M (2020) Hes played every regular season game but 2 over the last 3 years. He made his MLB debut in 2021. AAs notoriously quiet when negotiating. By 9:30 a.m. Frieds totals so far are $3.5M, $6.85M, and a potential $12.2M, which is $22.5M in arbitration through three passes at this point. 2. Strider threw his changeup 109 times in 2022 and, among pitchers who threw at least that many, his 47.5% miss rate when . Baseball will become a joke as far as competition is concerned. Sorry for the redundancy the message from the site was confusing. Yes, it would be more pricey that way, but its worth it to mitigate the good majority of the risk. They have a big part of their core locked up for years and have set themselves on the path to being contenders for the next five years minimum. Much of the play-by-play, game results, and transaction information both shown and used to create certain data sets was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by RetroSheet. This year they got a weak season from Acuna, and they won 101 games and the division. Unless youre LA, NY or Boston, you play early. Think hell get significantly longer offers than 3 years Sid. Bro thats not how it works just stick to one account. The lowest the cutoff has been since 2009 is 2.115. I was a little shocked at how quickly and how high Striders pay jumps. The Braves stepped up and want Morton to do it again, for $20m. Its one thing to find a new way to add money for the young guys, its another to say Julio Rodriguez should get a bigger 1st arb year because he was better two years ago. The players are definitely buying what the Braves are selling. There is nothing historically to say that even if they were absurdly expensive compared to other pitchers that it would even match what he was promised. Soroka has pitched 13 2/3 major league innings in the past 3 years, and no one knows if he will ever return to his rookie brilliance. Biography, Net Worth, Gossips, Salary, News & Much More. I feel good, and hopefully, it keeps trending in that direction.. Imagine if they wouldve locked up Soroka. $140 per post at $7/CPM. Im curious what he wants. I guess thats why you make comments without referencing who you are talking about or what makes you an expert. What would 2 years of Cole cost, instead of 9/324m? So say he has an impingement, needs surgery, and turns into a 4 ERA SP who goes 120 innings a yearabout the worst case for a dominant 23 year old. 2 things: If his performance stays this high he will make over $80 million in his pre-arb year and those 4 arb years. Playoff team extra year. Your login session has expired. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? They might not be able to re-sign Swanson because of this deal adding $15M to the cap due to his cap adjusted salary and if they do, they no longer can pursue DeGrom or another big named pitcher. By RotoWire Staff. YOU HAVE 20,000 FOLLOWERS: $100 per post at a $5/CPM. Is MLB ok with them now? Doubt the Sox are much happier w/Story, but Red Sox fans would know much more about that than I do. Strider has an 77% chance of avoiding it. Vons king of the hill when it comes to Phils fans on here. Beginning in '26, his salary will rise to $20 million, and it will rise to $22 million for the next two seasons. Yeah, selling tickets is all that matters. That is between 2 and 3 years. Click For Complete Top Prospect List for 2023 1. Swansons best year is his contract year, and even then its only a 115 OPS+ (when 100 is league average). Hes a rookie. They couldve done that with a 6 year deal for $45M with a $25M option. Good luck finding someone who doesnt think hell get back to those heights at 25 years old. This is smart timing, no surprise from AA. Then you wont be signing him. But Swanson is not nearly as good as those guys. Id hate to be him if he becomes human in Atlanta over the next 6 years. Essentially they trade the risk that he gets hurt and produces nothing in one or more years for the free first free agent year, and the discounted second free agent year assuming hes healthy. https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-camarena-grand-slam-off-max-scherzer, Wouldnt call him aging crap, but hes on the decline. You do need to add a year of FA to that because 6 years takes them through his first year of FA. Half these contracts wont work out. Players dont decide when they will be traded unless they have a no trade clause. The earliest Strider could have been arb eligible was after 2024. If they dont re-sign Swanson, theyre making a serious mistake. Thats $83M and even then I think those are totally unattainable, even if he won 2 Cy Young Awards and went to the All-Star game every year and what does that save the Braves $11M? That means he will have 2.003 so he will qualify for Super Two. Wrong bonuses are aside from the yearly contracts and have nothing to do with arbitration contracts either in setting the floor or adding to the annual amount. . Jealousys an ugly emotion. Total Zone Rating and initial framework for Wins above Replacement calculations provided by Sean Smith. Add in that Yankees more than any other team have their games moved to ESPN and Fox, and its often a challenge to play the game of find the Yankees. Less games on YES, but no reduction in the carriage fee we pay. I think thats not quite that straightforward. If he reaches his potential, sure if you want to believe that, but not on a long-term deal for a 30-year-old pitcher. Plus, he didn't love being so young and already dependent on medication for daily life. Spencer Strider made last year. What exactly do those look like? So basically they guaranteed his arbitration scale in exchange for an extra year, with an option for another year for more money. Why do Braves fans act like he just had the best rookie season ever? Cost of living adjustments are more for your average person. And with a World Series win in 2021 and another postseason run forthcoming, the NL East-champion Braves will no doubt see a boost to their revenues, lessening the sting of any luxury penalties that may arise in the next couple years. If we remove his first-full season clunker in 2017 and fold in 2022, hes still only at a league-average 100. These deals also help lower the luxury tax hit down the road. @Run. That is why teams are willing to pay huge dollars for seasons they know will not offer the same performance as the earlier years. That is less than average, but in line with some long term deals for FA. But blowing a 7 1/2 game lead on August 7 and losing 6-7 to the primary opposition is absolutely a choke job. The Super 2 status means more than 2 year and less than 3 years. Who doesnt believe that the Tigers have serious buyers remorse on Baez? Take Ohtanis arb for an example, $30MM for next season. Rich teams have figured this out. Clemson's top freshman in 2018, but missed 2019 due to injury returned in 2020 as a weekend starter had one of the hardest fastballs on the team was both a long reliever and starter three-time ACC Academic Honor Roll member in 63.0 innings pitched over 26 appearances (10 starts) and two active seasons, he had a 5-2 record . So by that logic, if you are making $500K/year, you would buy a Snickers bar for $10 because you have lots of money? This is why Swanson will end up in LAD replacing Trea Turner, while theyll save 80-100M, reuniting Swansong with Freeman, and more importantly, Charlie. Back when Acuna signed his eight-year, $100MM extension, that was the largest deal ever for a position player with under a year of big league service. I know its a business, but much like the Cardinals, the Braves seem to focus more than other clubs on the relational side with their players, thereby giving the Braves an edge over other teams during the respective players FA, if the Braves should choose to being said player back. Sure, its risky, but theyve gotten some historic numbers in a rookie season already from Strider. Thats 65m, plus his first 3 years. The Giants & Cubbies will follow and up the Goliaths to 5. even $50M. Thats $75M gone off the top, bringing their net total to $175M.If that same deal gets signed in New York, you can take extra $25M off. Paying for velo in todays game where everyone throws hard, is like paying $25M/year for Kiermaier to win GGs in CF. Yes, he started the season, which means he already has a full year of service time. Theyve got Fried under control through 2024. His love of the New York night life and illegal substances didnt help his career along either. And 2.003 years is nowhere near enough to qualify as a Super Two. Winning always helps too. The other 5 of all these extensions are postion players at different ages and stages in their careers. Its not if Strider has TJ surgery, but when he will have it.
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