fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts

Join. Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners questions about politics, polling and more. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcasts 200 episodes FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News News 4.5 19.2K Ratings FEB 21, 2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Accuracy is not guaranteed. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. Dive in and Share your insights! The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. 11:03 AM. Galen Druke is the host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. It's a busy week! We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. January 23, 2023 Examined What comes next after Texas school shooting? . Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. Find us at ThisDayPod.com. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. 3 min read. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. Bot Love was created by Diego Senior. send a tweet. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. gold rush supreme second chance winners. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. security jobs paying $30 an hour; fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". Mental Health AI & Data Science Politics News Business Investing English United States 365 episodes since Nov. 1, 2018 episodic IN THIS PODCAST FiveThirtyEight Politics Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics. 450 episodes. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. FiveThirtyEight Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. Listen at itun.es/i67M5bV. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. Just another site fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. police- settlements. Whereas Tester . So, the usual. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. The data behind that evolution is striking. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. . The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government,American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. PODCAST-19 brings you the latest evidence on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. The Supreme Court Not So Much. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. More Information Location: United States Genres: News & Politics Podcasts Politics News Networks: ABC News (US) Description: Today those numbers have flipped. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. 71 Episodes Share Follow Seasons About 38 minutes | Feb 16, 2023 The Hero Who Rode His Segway Off a Cliff Steve Jobs called It "the most amazing piece of technology since the PC." According to Jeff Bezos It was not only "revolutionary," but infinitely commercial. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. RSS Loading. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general. Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. . Nate Silver's. On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.Website: http:. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the second episode. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. robert kraft granddaughter. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. They determine whether we live in a free or repres Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. You can't imitate a worldview. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. Rev. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states.

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